The Calm Before the Rally

The Calm Before the Rally

I know the charts might look messy, the market might seem slow, and it feels like nothing is moving.

But I promise you, something is building beneath the surface—and if you’ve been around long enough, you can almost feel it too.

Let’s get into it.

We’re Getting Close. Really Close.

You’ve probably heard the term “altseason” thrown around a lot. Some are screaming it’s already here, others say we’re months away. Here’s the truth:

There’s no guaranteed signal for altseason.

There’s no magic line that gets crossed where bells ring and money rains down on alts. But just because it’s not guaranteed doesn’t mean we can’t prepare for it. We can still track the signs, plan ahead, and position ourselves smartly.

Let’s look at what the market is telling us…

Chart Breakdown – The Altseason Signal?

• Purple line: $BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance)

• Yellow line: $ETH

• Chart includes: $BTC.D + $USDT.D + $USDC.D combined dominance

📊 In the last cycle, when the combined dominance of Bitcoin, USDT, and USDC hit around 76%, it rejected hard and triggered a rally in ETH… and that was our start of altseason.

Right now, we’re at those same levels again.

The purple line ($BTC.D) is extended. It's been trending up for nearly 4 years, which is one of the biggest reasons we haven’t seen altseason yet. But that can’t last forever. Just like last cycle, this type of overextension often gets corrected—and those corrections are usually where alts shine.

At the same time, ETH has been slow, yes. But the setup forming now? It’s very similar to what we saw just before ETH took off last time.

So no, I’m not claiming altseason is here right now, but what I am saying is that it’s getting very, very close.

Timing Is a Trap (Set Your Limit Orders Now)

Let’s be real, you won’t catch the exact bottom. You won’t perfectly time the breakout. And when the price finally hits your target, you’ll probably doubt yourself. You’ll hesitate. You’ll start thinking:

And just like that, you won’t buy what you already planned to buy.

That’s why I always say this:
📌 Have your limit orders set. Don’t wait until things explode to make decisions. Let your strategy execute for you.

Because the truth is, the more we wait, the closer we get to the moment. Markets move fast when they finally break out. When that door opens, you don’t want to be on the wrong side of it.

The Macro Backdrop: Powell Might Cut Soon

Now let’s zoom out and talk macro for a second.

The market is watching Jerome Powell like a hawk. The Fed has held rates high for a while now to cool inflation—but pressure is mounting. We’re seeing signs across the board that cuts might be on the table soon.

Here are a few charts and signals to watch:

📉 Fed Funds Futures (Rate Cut Expectations)

• Markets are pricing in a possible rate cut as early as June or July.

• Every time rate cuts start, risk-on assets (like crypto and tech stocks) tend to rally afterward.

📈 VIX – The Volatility Index

Right now, the VIX is hovering around 51.8, which is the same level we saw during:

• COVID crash (2020)

• BOJ Rate Hikes (2022)

And what happened after those events?
Massive rallies.

This is what smart money watches, extreme fear usually precedes extreme opportunity.

History Repeats… Again and Again

Let me leave you with this: the $SPX (white line) has always recovered. Always.

• 2007–2008 Financial Crisis

• 2000–2002 Dot-Com Bubble

• 2020 Pandemic

• 1970s Oil & Inflation Crisis

• 1987 Black Monday

No matter the crash. No matter the crisis.
The market always found a way back up.

This is why I stay bullish in the face of fear—because fear is part of the cycle.

Keep Your Risk Low, Even If Altseason Comes

Altseason might be close, but don’t let the excitement make you forget about risk. A small mistake can wipe out your gains fast.

Don’t put all your money into one coin. Spread it out across a few strong setups. BUT DO NOT OVER SPREAD IT

Only invest what you can afford to lose. Crypto is fast and unpredictable, protect your money first.

Have a plan before you enter a trade. Know where you’ll take profit and where you’ll cut your loss.

Never chase a coin just because it’s pumping. That’s how most people lose money.

Set limit orders and stick to them. Don’t change your mind in the middle of a move.

If you already have a plan, trust it. Don’t let fear or hype change your strategy.

Altseason can bring big gains, but it also brings big risk. Good risk management keeps you in the game long enough to win.

Final Words

We’re at the edge of something. I don’t know the exact hour, day, or candle where everything will flip. But I can tell you this:

🧠 Be emotionally prepared.
📉 Have your orders set.
📊 Know your plan and stick to it.
💸 Don’t let hesitation cost you your own setup..

You’ve done the research. You’ve followed the charts.
Now... trust your work.

Thanks for reading,
– Ahmed